St. Francis PA

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	178.0
Current RPI:	178
Expected SOS:	281
Current SOS:	281
Current Record:	16-12
Expected Record:	16-12
Current Conf Record:	12-7
Expected Conf Record:	12-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-6
Current OOC Record:	4-5
Expected OOC Record:	4-5
Expected OOC RPI:	129
Expected OOC SOS:	138

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-12	178.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. Francis PA.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Saint Mary's (40.0)	WCC	A	85-68	L	0%
11-13	San Francisco (139.0)	WCC	A	75-63	L	0%
11-18	Longwood (337.0)	BSth	A	56-83	W	100%
11-24	Louisville (38.0)	ACC	A	84-72	L	0%
11-29	American (336.0)	Pat	H	100-89	W	100%
12-2	Stony Brook (208.0)	AE	A	85-83	L	0%
12-5	Duke (7.0)	ACC	A	124-67	L	0%
12-10	Niagara (163.0)	MAAC	A	87-93	W	100%
12-21	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	H	84-70	W	100%
12-29	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	A	72-68	L	0%
12-31	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	A	82-86	W	100%
1-4	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	H	85-68	W	100%
1-6	St. Francis NY (276.0)	NEC	H	91-87	W	100%
1-11	Robert Morris (196.0)	NEC	A	80-89	W	100%
1-13	Mount St. Mary's (225.0)	NEC	H	80-81	L	0%
1-18	Wagner (109.0)	NEC	A	73-64	L	0%
1-20	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	A	60-73	W	100%
1-26	Wagner (109.0)	NEC	H	61-91	L	0%
1-28	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	H	72-71	W	100%
2-1	Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)	NEC	H	74-60	W	100%
2-3	Mount St. Mary's (225.0)	NEC	A	59-56	L	0%
2-8	LIU Brooklyn (232.0)	NEC	A	83-67	L	0%
2-10	St. Francis NY (276.0)	NEC	A	65-90	W	100%
2-15	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	H	77-71	W	100%
2-17	Bryant (341.0)	NEC	H	89-56	W	100%
2-22	Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)	NEC	A	82-90	W	100%
2-24	Robert Morris (196.0)	NEC	H	80-60	W	100%
2-28	Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)	NEC	H	75-84	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. Francis PA's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

St. Francis PA's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against St. Francis PA.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
St. Francis PA	NEC	26.46	26.46	61.29	61.29	5.97	5.97
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	6.33	6.33	38.46	38.46	-1.46	-1.46
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	4.81	4.81	51.61	51.61	0.16	0.16
Wagner	NEC	4.75	4.75	67.86	67.86	1.70	1.70
Robert Morris	NEC	4.69	4.69	51.61	51.61	0.15	0.15
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	4.68	4.68	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	4.63	4.63	43.33	43.33	-0.62	-0.62
St. Francis NY	NEC	4.61	4.61	40.74	40.74	-0.85	-0.85
Bryant	NEC	4.59	4.59	10.34	10.34	-3.64	-3.64
Sacred Heart	NEC	4.56	4.56	32.14	32.14	-1.63	-1.63
American	Pat	1.97	1.97	20.69	20.69	-1.15	-1.15
Lehigh	Pat	1.90	1.90	53.57	53.57	0.14	0.14
Louisville	ACC	1.87	1.87	59.38	59.38	0.35	0.35
Saint Mary's	WCC	1.84	1.84	84.38	84.38	1.27	1.27
San Francisco	WCC	1.84	1.84	51.61	51.61	0.06	0.06
Stony Brook	AE	1.84	1.84	36.67	36.67	-0.49	-0.49
Duke	ACC	1.81	1.81	78.12	78.12	1.02	1.02
Longwood	BSth	1.79	1.79	13.79	13.79	-1.29	-1.29
Niagara	MAAC	1.79	1.79	61.29	61.29	0.40	0.40
Hartford	AE	0.40	0.40	58.06	58.06	0.06	0.06
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.32	0.32	43.75	43.75	-0.04	-0.04
UMass Lowell	AE	0.29	0.29	37.93	37.93	-0.07	-0.07
Holy Cross	Pat	0.27	0.27	38.71	38.71	-0.06	-0.06
Brown	Ivy	0.26	0.26	38.46	38.46	-0.06	-0.06
Navy	Pat	0.24	0.24	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Rutgers	B10	0.23	0.23	42.42	42.42	-0.04	-0.04
Army	Pat	0.21	0.21	41.38	41.38	-0.04	-0.04
Lafayette	Pat	0.21	0.21	30.00	30.00	-0.08	-0.08
NJIT	ASun	0.21	0.21	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Notre Dame	ACC	0.20	0.20	57.58	57.58	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.20	0.20	25.00	25.00	-0.10	-0.10
Siena	MAAC	0.20	0.20	25.00	25.00	-0.10	-0.10
Fairfield	MAAC	0.20	0.20	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.18	0.18	26.67	26.67	-0.08	-0.08
Seton Hall	BE	0.18	0.18	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Maine	AE	0.17	0.17	13.33	13.33	-0.13	-0.13
New Hampshire	AE	0.17	0.17	27.59	27.59	-0.08	-0.08
Binghamton	AE	0.17	0.17	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Albany	AE	0.17	0.17	67.74	67.74	0.06	0.06
Boston College	ACC	0.17	0.17	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
BYU	WCC	0.16	0.16	70.59	70.59	0.07	0.07
San Diego	WCC	0.16	0.16	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Boston University	Pat	0.15	0.15	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.15	0.15	73.53	73.53	0.07	0.07
Iona	MAAC	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.14	0.14	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.14	0.14	70.97	70.97	0.06	0.06
Virginia	ACC	0.14	0.14	93.94	93.94	0.12	0.12
Gonzaga	WCC	0.14	0.14	88.24	88.24	0.11	0.11
Pacific	WCC	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.14	0.14	16.13	16.13	-0.09	-0.09
Princeton	Ivy	0.12	0.12	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Maryland	B10	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Colgate	Pat	0.12	0.12	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Manhattan	MAAC	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.12	0.12	23.08	23.08	-0.06	-0.06
Fordham	A10	0.12	0.12	29.03	29.03	-0.05	-0.05
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	15.62	15.62	-0.08	-0.08
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Portland	WCC	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Santa Clara	WCC	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.11	0.11	71.43	71.43	0.05	0.05
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
High Point	BSth	0.09	0.09	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.09	0.09	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Monmouth	MAAC	0.09	0.09	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Vermont	AE	0.09	0.09	78.79	78.79	0.05	0.05
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	Sum	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
VMI	SC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.06	0.06	26.92	26.92	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
DePaul	BE	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.06	0.06	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Miami FL	ACC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	Amer	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
Portland St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Utah Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01